food insecurity
Food4All: A Multi-Agent Framework for Real-time Free Food Discovery with Integrated Nutritional Metadata
Yuan, Zhengqing, Li, Yiyang, Sun, Weixiang, Zhang, Zheyuan, Shi, Kaiwen, Murugesan, Keerthiram, Ye, Yanfang
Food insecurity remains a persistent public health emergency in the United States, tightly interwoven with chronic disease, mental illness, and opioid misuse. Yet despite the existence of thousands of food banks and pantries, access remains fragmented: 1) current retrieval systems depend on static directories or generic search engines, which provide incomplete and geographically irrelevant results; 2) LLM-based chatbots offer only vague nutritional suggestions and fail to adapt to real-world constraints such as time, mobility, and transportation; and 3) existing food recommendation systems optimize for culinary diversity but overlook survival-critical needs of food-insecure populations, including immediate proximity, verified availability, and contextual barriers. These limitations risk leaving the most vulnerable individuals, those experiencing homelessness, addiction, or digital illiteracy, unable to access urgently needed resources. To address this, we introduce Food4All, the first multi-agent framework explicitly designed for real-time, context-aware free food retrieval. Food4All unifies three innovations: 1) heterogeneous data aggregation across official databases, community platforms, and social media to provide a continuously updated pool of food resources; 2) a lightweight reinforcement learning algorithm trained on curated cases to optimize for both geographic accessibility and nutritional correctness; and 3) an online feedback loop that dynamically adapts retrieval policies to evolving user needs. By bridging information acquisition, semantic analysis, and decision support, Food4All delivers nutritionally annotated and guidance at the point of need. This framework establishes an urgent step toward scalable, equitable, and intelligent systems that directly support populations facing food insecurity and its compounding health risks.
Modeling Urban Food Insecurity with Google Street View Images
F ood insecurity is a significant social and public health issue that plagues many urban metropolitan areas around the world. Existing approaches to identifying food insecurity rely primarily on qualitative and quantitative survey data, which is difficult to scale. This project seeks to explore the effectiveness of using street-level images in modeling food insecurity at the census tract level. T o do so, we propose a two-step process of feature extraction and gated attention for image aggregation. W e evaluate the effectiveness of our model by comparing against other model architectures, interpreting our learned weights, and performing a case study. While our model falls slightly short in terms of its predictive power, we believe our approach still has the potential to supplement existing methods of identifying food insecurity for urban planners and policymakers.
A monthly sub-national Harmonized Food Insecurity Dataset for comprehensive analysis and predictive modeling
Machefer, Mélissande, Ronco, Michele, Thomas, Anne-Claire, Assouline, Michael, Rabier, Melanie, Corbane, Christina, Rembold, Felix
Food security is a complex, multidimensional concept challenging to measure comprehensively. Effective anticipation, monitoring, and mitigation of food crises require timely and comprehensive global data. This paper introduces the Harmonized Food Insecurity Dataset (HFID), an open-source resource consolidating four key data sources: the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)/Cadre Harmonis\'e (CH) phases, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) IPC-compatible phases, and the World Food Program's (WFP) Food Consumption Score (FCS) and reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI). Updated monthly and using a common reference system for administrative units, the HFID offers extensive spatial and temporal coverage. It serves as a vital tool for food security experts and humanitarian agencies, providing a unified resource for analyzing food security conditions and highlighting global data disparities. The scientific community can also leverage the HFID to develop data-driven predictive models, enhancing the capacity to forecast and prevent future food crises.
Local vs. Global: Local Land-Use and Land-Cover Models Deliver Higher Quality Maps
Tadesse, Girmaw Abebe, Robinson, Caleb, Mwangi, Charles, Maina, Esther, Nyakundi, Joshua, Marotti, Luana, Hacheme, Gilles Quentin, Alemohammad, Hamed, Dodhia, Rahul, Ferres, Juan M. Lavista
In 2023, 58.0% of the African population experienced moderate to severe food insecurity, with 21.6% facing severe food insecurity. Land-use and land-cover maps provide crucial insights for addressing food insecurity by improving agricultural efforts, including mapping and monitoring crop types and estimating yield. The development of global land-cover maps has been facilitated by the increasing availability of earth observation data and advancements in geospatial machine learning. However, these global maps exhibit lower accuracy and inconsistencies in Africa, partly due to the lack of representative training data. To address this issue, we propose a data-centric framework with a teacher-student model setup, which uses diverse data sources of satellite images and label examples to produce local land-cover maps. Our method trains a high-resolution teacher model on images with a resolution of 0.331 m/pixel and a low-resolution student model on publicly available images with a resolution of 10 m/pixel. The student model also utilizes the teacher model's output as its weak label examples through knowledge transfer. We evaluated our framework using Murang'a county in Kenya, renowned for its agricultural productivity, as a use case. Our local models achieved higher quality maps, with improvements of 0.14 in the F1 score and 0.21 in Intersection-over-Union, compared to the best global model. Our evaluation also revealed inconsistencies in existing global maps, with a maximum agreement rate of 0.30 among themselves. Our work provides valuable guidance to decision-makers for driving informed decisions to enhance food security.
Improving the accuracy of food security predictions by integrating conflict data
Bertetti, Marco, Agnolucci, Paolo, Calzadilla, Alvaro, Capra, Licia
Food security (FS) is a complex and multifaceted problem, influenced by several factors such as weather events, economic shocks, and natural disasters. Understanding the dynamics of food security is crucial for effective policymaking and humanitarian efforts. While conflicts and violent events increasingly stand out as key drivers of food crises[1], the depth of their impact remains largely underexplored. Examining the quantitative aspects of this impact is essential for developing more targeted interventions and strategies to address the complex interplay between conflict and food security. Existing research tends to be qualitative in nature (Kemmerling et al.2022; Brown et al. 2020; Brown et al. 2021), leaving a significant gap in understanding the quantitative aspects of how conflicts impact FS levels. By delving into quantitative analyses, we can not only enhance our comprehension of the magnitude of the problem but also pave the way for evidence-based decision-making in efforts to alleviate food insecurity in conflict-affected regions. Regarding the qualitative study of conflicts and FS, Kemmerling et al.(2022)[2] provided a comprehensive explanation on how violence and armed conflicts impact FS through destruction, displacement, financing of conflicts and food being used as a weapon. The authors call for better conflict data collection, and an increase in focus on the study of conflicts early warnings.
From Bytes to Bites: Using Country Specific Machine Learning Models to Predict Famine
Kapoor, Salloni, Sayer, Simeon
Hunger crises are critical global issues affecting millions, particularly in low-income and developing countries. This research investigates how machine learning can be utilized to predict and inform decisions regarding famine and hunger crises. By leveraging a diverse set of variables (natural, economic, and conflict-related), three machine learning models (Linear Regression, XGBoost, and RandomForestRegressor) were employed to predict food consumption scores, a key indicator of household nutrition. The RandomForestRegressor emerged as the most accurate model, with an average prediction error of 10.6%, though accuracy varied significantly across countries, ranging from 2% to over 30%. Notably, economic indicators were consistently the most significant predictors of average household nutrition, while no single feature dominated across all regions, underscoring the necessity for comprehensive data collection and tailored, country-specific models. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning, particularly Random Forests, to enhance famine prediction, suggesting that continued research and improved data gathering are essential for more effective global hunger forecasting.
Forecasting Trends in Food Security: a Reservoir Computing Approach
Herteux, Joschka, Räth, Christoph, Baha, Amine, Martini, Giulia, Piovani, Duccio
Early warning systems are an essential tool for effective humanitarian action. Advance warnings on impending disasters facilitate timely and targeted response which help save lives, livelihoods, and scarce financial resources. In this work we present a new quantitative methodology to forecast levels of food consumption for 60 consecutive days, at the sub-national level, in four countries: Mali, Nigeria, Syria, and Yemen. The methodology is built on publicly available data from the World Food Programme's integrated global hunger monitoring system which collects, processes, and displays daily updates on key food security metrics, conflict, weather events, and other drivers of food insecurity across 90 countries (https://hungermap.wfp.org/). In this study, we assessed the performance of various models including ARIMA, XGBoost, LSTMs, CNNs, and Reservoir Computing (RC), by comparing their Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics. This comprehensive analysis spanned classical statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches. Our findings highlight Reservoir Computing as a particularly well-suited model in the field of food security given both its notable resistance to over-fitting on limited data samples and its efficient training capabilities. The methodology we introduce establishes the groundwork for a global, data-driven early warning system designed to anticipate and detect food insecurity.
HungerGist: An Interpretable Predictive Model for Food Insecurity
Ahn, Yongsu, Yan, Muheng, Lin, Yu-Ru, Wang, Zian
The escalating food insecurity in Africa, caused by factors such as war, climate change, and poverty, demonstrates the critical need for advanced early warning systems. Traditional methodologies, relying on expert-curated data encompassing climate, geography, and social disturbances, often fall short due to data limitations, hindering comprehensive analysis and potential discovery of new predictive factors. To address this, this paper introduces "HungerGist", a multi-task deep learning model utilizing news texts and NLP techniques. Using a corpus of over 53,000 news articles from nine African countries over four years, we demonstrate that our model, trained solely on news data, outperforms the baseline method trained on both traditional risk factors and human-curated keywords. In addition, our method has the ability to detect critical texts that contain interpretable signals known as "gists." Moreover, our examination of these gists indicates that this approach has the potential to reveal latent factors that would otherwise remain concealed in unstructured texts.
Revolutionizing Global Food Security: Empowering Resilience through Integrated AI Foundation Models and Data-Driven Solutions
Shoaib, Mohamed R., Emara, Heba M., Zhao, Jun
Food security, a global concern, necessitates precise and diverse data-driven solutions to address its multifaceted challenges. This paper explores the integration of AI foundation models across various food security applications, leveraging distinct data types, to overcome the limitations of current deep and machine learning methods. Specifically, we investigate their utilization in crop type mapping, cropland mapping, field delineation and crop yield prediction. By capitalizing on multispectral imagery, meteorological data, soil properties, historical records, and high-resolution satellite imagery, AI foundation models offer a versatile approach. The study demonstrates that AI foundation models enhance food security initiatives by providing accurate predictions, improving resource allocation, and supporting informed decision-making. These models serve as a transformative force in addressing global food security limitations, marking a significant leap toward a sustainable and secure food future.
Evaluating the Impact of Humanitarian Aid on Food Security
Cerdà-Bautista, Jordi, Tárraga, José María, Sitokonstantinou, Vasileios, Camps-Valls, Gustau
In the face of climate change-induced droughts, vulnerable regions encounter severe threats to food security, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance. This paper introduces a causal inference framework for the Horn of Africa, aiming to assess the impact of cash-based interventions on food crises. Our contributions encompass identifying causal relationships within the food security system, harmonizing a comprehensive database, and estimating the causal effect of humanitarian interventions on malnutrition. Our results revealed no significant effects, likely due to limited sample size, suboptimal data quality, and an imperfect causal graph resulting from our limited understanding of multidisciplinary systems like food security. This underscores the need to enhance data collection and refine causal models with domain experts for more effective future interventions and policies, improving transparency and accountability in humanitarian aid.